Global Q3 2022 Scenarios – Executive Summary

The global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate. Since our previous global scenarios were released three months ago, we have revised down our baseline forecast for world GDP – and subsequently, our near-term outlook for commercial real estate. The risk that the global economy will slip into recession next year has risen and so has the risk of a protracted period of stagflation.

What you will learn:

• Our Q3 2022 global scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These scenarios explore: high inflation regime; gas rationing; advanced economy recession; and slower policy tightening.
• This executive summary highlights the key macroeconomic features of our baseline forecast and this quarter’s global scenarios. Further details on the implications for commercial real estate will be provided in our main report, due shortly.