Global Scenarios Service: Credit Crunch

Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. While we have revised up our expectations for global growth this year given the resilience of recent economic data, we have lowered our forecast for 2024 as recent events in the banking sector will likely prompt further tightening of banks’ credit conditions.

The situation in the banking system is a key uncertainty. If problems intensify, then it could result in a much weaker path for the global economy.

We continue to expect relatively subdued global growth this year and next. We forecast world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2023 – with the US pushed into recession in H2 – and 2.2% in 2024.

This quarter’s Global Scenarios report suggests banking system strains and tightened credit supply now pose the greatest threats to the global economy.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.