How the House Republican bill will affect the forecast
Temporary fiscal measures and ongoing Senate negotiations create uncertainty in the economic outlook.
House Republicans narrowly passed a major reconciliation bill to deliver President Donald Trump’s economic agenda.
The House reconciliation bill included more tax cuts and cost savings than the baseline forecast anticipated.
The biggest difference from the baseline forecast is that the tax and spending changes under the reconciliation bill are temporary, while the forecast assumed all fiscal policy changes will be permanent.
Oxford Economics will not rush to adopt the reconciliation bill in the baseline as the Senate must craft its version. Potential opposition to Medicaid cuts and recissions to the Inflation Reduction Act will limit the scope for new tax cuts.
