How trade shapes the winners and losers of AI boom

The link between artificial intelligence and international trade is often drawn too narrowly, focusing on technology leadership rather than the investment channels that ultimately drive goods flows. From a trade perspective, AI matters less as a digital technology and more as a capital- and resource-intensive investment cycle.

• We assess the effects of AI growth on global trade using our TradePrism model, which forecasts bilateral trade flows for 99% of global trade across more than 1,200 commodities. This analysis compares our latest baseline with two AI-related scenarios. The upside scenario (AI Boom) assumes elevated, US-led AI investment drives strong demand for AI-related goods. The downside scenario (Tech Downturn) captures a tech-led slowdown that curtails capital spending and weighs on global trade.

• AI investment does not act as a uniform trade shock. Instead, it generates uneven trade responses across economies and sectors, depending on exposure to AI-related products and input value chains. Economies positioned in the value chain, from raw materials to end-use production, are more sensitive to the AI-driven investment cycle. Meanwhile, economies with limited industrial scale experience more muted goods trade responses.

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