Industry Forecast Highlights: Industry dynamics driven by Trump 2.0 policies
Our latest global industry forecasts reflect the impact of a second Trump presidency on industrial sectors. The US industrial forecast is now upgraded over the next two years, reflecting the impact of corporate tax cuts, with capital goods sectors expected to benefit most.
What you will learn:
- Tariffs and curbs to immigration will be detrimental to longer-term US industrial output, although the impact will vary considerably across sectors. US production of electronics and electricals should benefit from the tariffs. By contrast, higher input costs and rising interest rates will weigh on capital-intensive sectors, and curbs to immigration risk labour shortages in agriculture and construction.
- Outside of the US, the impact of a Trump presidency will be decidedly negative. The impact of blanket tariffs on China and sector-targeted tariffs on several allies will reduce trade, leading to lower production, less efficient global supply chains, and a loss of knowledge transfer.
- Even prior to the US election, there were shifts in the outlook since our last update. We revised up our US productivity forecasts leading to an upward revision to trend GDP growth. Countering this, we have pushed back the European industrial recovery well into 2025. Overall, our global industrial production forecast is little changed in 2025 at 3.1%. The downgrades to global industry are most stark towards the end of the decade.
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