Canada | Industry mix drives provincial scarring in long pandemic

A sustained pandemic with scarring effects would reduce Canada’s economic growth by close to 0.3ppts per annum between 2021 and 2026. Less vaccinated, resource-dependent provinces such as Saskatchewan and Alberta would be hurt most, according to analysis using our new Canadian Provincial and Territorial model, while provinces with a more favourable industry mix, such as most Atlantic provinces and B.C., would fare better.

What you will learn:

• Provincial economies less subject to variable foreign demand or services would manage better in a lingering pandemic. 
• Strong vaccination rates and less strict restrictions would help many of Canada’s Atlantic provinces deal with a longer pandemic. 
• In this briefing, long Covid denotes variants that would slow the trajectory of potential GDP, with negative impacts on consumer spending, labour supply, business investment, and weaker global demand.