Inflation was the main driver for Trump victory

Our sticker-shock model of the 2024 presidential election accurately predicted the winner of nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The only miss was Michigan.

What you will learn:

• Across most states, though, the model underestimated support for Donald Trump, especially in reliably blue states. Frustration over inflation propelled the former president to a second term, but other issues were at play.
• Many voters are still reeling from the inflation shock of 2021 and 2022, and the moderation in consumer price increases since then did little to improve their sentiment toward the political status quo.
• Since Q2 2022, Democrats were likely destined to lose the 2024 presidential contest, and it would have taken sustained deflation in recent years for Vice President Kamala Harris to have had a shot of winning.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.