Video|3 July 2025

Is the outlook brightening for Saudi Arabia?

Scott Livermore
Scott Livermore
Chief Economist & Managing Director
Is the outlook brightening for Saudi Arabia?


Last week, oil prices moderated by around 15%, as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped to reduce risk premiums. We expect the July 6 OPEC+ meeting to announce further increases in production quotas, contributing to a continued easing of oil prices back toward our pre-crisis path with oil expected to end the year around $60 per barrel.


Unemployment among Saudi nationals fell in Q1, reflecting progress toward the downwardly revised Vision 2030 unemployment target of 5%. The central bank reissued US$600 million in domestic debt to help manage fiscal pressures, as capital spending remains high under Vision 2030. Meanwhile, the IMF upgraded this year’s growth forecast to 3.5%, driven by the expected phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts and bringing it closer to our projection of 3.6%.


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