London Monitor: Growth continues but the economy lacks vigour

Survey evidence paints a mixed picture of the London economy, with continuing growth but some signs of slowdown and of possible problems ahead. Employment has continued to rise, as have property prices, and travel and tourism are strengthening, but global economic challenges potentially impact London more than most cities. We forecast 4.3% GVA growth this year, 2.0% next year.

What you will learn:

• In March the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index for London showed a rise in the business activity score, but declines in both the rate of new business growth and expectations for future output.
• Office vacancy rates fell in Central London in March and rents improved slightly, with a similar story for Central London retailing. Outside the centre, retail vacancy rates remain high.
• We expect GVA in London to grow by 4.3% in 2022 before moderating to 2.0% growth in 2023.