Long-term risks shaped by megatrends

Global economic growth has been slowing during the past decade, especially when compared to the pre-2008 trend. This deceleration is largely driven by long-term structural shifts, including ageing populations that reduce the labour supply, declining productivity growth, and a significant slowdown in global trade growth. 

What you will learn:

• Decade-long shifts shape the global economy, driven by gradual but sustained megatrends. The compounding effects of small changes can lead to major impacts on output, incomes, and employment.
• Understanding and accounting for long-term risks and opportunities is essential to navigate these evolving dynamics. We identify four core megatrends as the most influential drivers of the long-term outlook: demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation.
• Population dynamics are important to economic outcomes. Ageing populations strain public finances and weaken growth, while lower fertility rates reduce the labour supply. In China, the working-age population has shrank since 2016, contributing to its economic slowdown.
• Global trade faces growing threats from rising protectionism. The resurgence of trade barriers since 2008, accelerated by political shifts, undermines the benefits of cooperation. Global Trade Alert data show the number of new harmful trade measures in 2024 was almost three times higher than in 2015.

This report is from our brand new Megatrends Scenarios service, click here to find out more.