Video|27 February 2025

MENA | Is Saudi Arabia’s Trade Surplus Set to Rebound?

MENA | Is Saudi Arabia’s Trade Surplus Set to Rebound?


In December 2024, Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus narrowed to SAR 15.3 billion from SAR 34.8 billion due to higher imports and lower oil exports from ongoing OPEC+ cuts. We expect these cuts to unwind in H2 2025, with oil prices falling 5% but increased production offsetting the decline. As oil exports rise, both the trade surplus and current account balance are projected to improve, with the current account moving from -0.3% of GDP in 2024 to 0.4% in 2025.

Iraq’s oil ministry announced that oil shipments through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline will resume next week, starting with 185,000 bpd. The U.S. has been pressuring Iraq to restart these exports to help offset anticipated declines in Iranian oil due to stricter sanctions. Brent crude fell to $74.42 on the same day, as oil prices faced downward pressure from the expected resumption of Kurdish oil exports, which had previously tightened supply during their nearly two-year halt.


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