Video|6 March 2025

MENA | Is Turkey’s inflation finally under control?

Maya Senussi
Maya Senussi
Lead Economist
MENA | Is Turkey’s inflation finally under control?


Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food. The strength of domestic demand, evident in the GDP data reported last Friday, suggests services inflation will be slow to improve. But with disinflation continuing, we expect the central bank to cut its policy rate by another 250bps to 42.5% this week.

OPEC+ members confirmed they would abide by their plan to boost oil supply from April, while we and markets had been expecting another delay. The announcement adds to the headwinds for the oil price, already hit by growing tariff risks to the global economy. The drop in Brent oil price to a six-month low hints at a downgrade to our average forecast for the year from the current $74.50pb.


Our latest videos

MENA in a Minute

Relevant Content

Middle East Key Themes 2025: Ahead of the race

Middle East Key Themes 2025: Ahead of the race

We’re optimistic about GCC’s outlook for 2025 as oil production gradually increases, providing a boost to the region’s economies.
GCC: Key themes shaping city economies in the near term

GCC: Key themes shaping city economies in the near term

For Gulf cities, the near-term outlook will be tied not only to the global macroeconomic backdrop, but also the progress of the diverse visions and strategies in the region. With the aim to diversify their economies and reduce the dependence on oil, Gulf states continue to invest in the non-oil economy and implement various reforms. That said, oil revenues remain key to funding diversification efforts.
Iran-Israel tensions should dissipate after latest flare up

Iran-Israel tensions should dissipate after latest flare up

The military escalation between Iran and Israel has ratcheted up fears of an expanded Middle East conflict. The threat of counter strikes by Israel is clearly heightened, but we think both sides will ultimately seek to avoid a costly all-out war.

  • Share: