National Bank of Poland hikes rates amid falling PLN and higher inflation prospects

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps at yesterday’s meeting, bringing it to 3.5%. Although a continuation of monetary tightening was expected, the hike exceeded both our and consensus expectations of a 50bps move.

What you will learn:

• NBP finds itself in an increasingly challenging environment.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine will in essence constitute a stagflationary shock, further boosting inflation from already record levels primarily through its impact on energy commodity prices, at the same time weighing on the pace of GDP growth.
• Notably, the war in the East has boosted the risk premium for Polish assets, as investors limited their exposure on CEE.