Negative Outlook for US Inbound Travel Hasn’t Budged

The negative outlook for inbound travel to the US remains. Travelers make choices: where and when to travel, when to book, and how long to stay. Perceptions of the US impact these decisions.

• Sentiment headwinds are negatively impacting US inbound travel. We expect a decline of 8.7% in US international arrivals for the year overall (compared to a 9.4% decline in our March forecast).

• Factors contributing to the negative outlook include Trump administration posturing and policy announcements, such as ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs across long-standing trade partners. Media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories also poses risks.

• Visitation from Canada (-20.2%) and Western Europe (-5.8%) show the sharpest declines. We forecast international visitor spending to fall by $8.5 billion (-4.7%), relative to last year.

• Findings show a pullback in Canadian travel to the US, with a 35.2% April decline among Canadian land visitors returning from trips to the US and a corresponding 19.9% drop in air visitors.

• During March and April combined, inbound travel to the US from overseas origins (international minus Canada and Mexico) declined 1.6% compared to last year. Easter timing impacted the suppression of arrivals in March (-11.6%) and boosted arrivals in April (8.0%).

• Air bookings as of April show continued weakness. 10.8% fewer flights have been booked to the US for the May to July period than at the same point last year.

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