Norway | Forecast for 2021 downgraded slightly, but GDP will still rebound strongly in Q3

We have lowered our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% previously after a softer-than-expected expansion in July. GDP rose by 1.1% m/m in August due to a very strong month for fishing. After a solid rebound in Q3, we expect growth to moderate but remain firm.

What you will learn:

• Supply headwinds and high inflation are the main headwinds, with soaring electricity prices posing a downside risk to the consumption outlook.
• Consumption will rebound very strongly in Q3 as services spending rises sharply, while goods spending will hold firm.
• Higher energy prices have led to increased extraction of oil and natural gas in the past few months, supporting overall industrial production.