Parsing US federal job cuts by metro

Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally, but more significant implications for the Washington, DC metropolitan economy as it accounts for 17% of all non-military federal jobs in the US.

What you will learn:

• While just over half of the metro’s federal employees work in the District, only 11% live there, compared to the 40% who live in Suburban Maryland, and 48% in Suburban Virginia. Unemployment will rise in each of these locales, though we estimate that the jobless rate will climb by less than 0.4 ppts in 2025 in each case. Already, unemployment claims for federal workers in Maryland have jumped.
• Other metros have a notable share of non-military federal workers, especially in one or two of the agencies targeted for cuts, and are therefore vulnerable to job layoffs. These include Baltimore, Atlanta, Ogden (UT), Denver, and Houston.
• The Veterans Administration (VA) is the largest federal government employer outside of the military, with numerous VA hospitals across the US. VA cuts would affect many small metros where the VA hospital often serves as the largest employer. In addition to DC and most major metros, Tampa, San Antonio, Killeen (TX), Fayetteville (NC), and Virginia Beach face the highest exposure to VA job cuts. Likewise, cuts to the headcount at national parks, museums, and cultural institutions would affect locales in Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, and Hawaii.

For more insights on the 2024 US Presidential Election, click here.