Russian government announces oil production cut as expected

The government’s announcement that the country’s oil output will be reduced by 0.5 mn b/d in March is not a surprise. The amount of the reduction is at the lower bound of the range mooted back in December after the first phase of the EU oil embargo came into force.

We have updated our 2023 oil production forecast taking those signals into account. It sees a reduction of 6.8% in Russia’s oil output and leaves room for a further moderate decrease that is likely to occur in Q2.