Short-run oil outlook: prices to settle in high-50s
A growing supply surplus and weakening fundamentals point to sustained downward pressure on oil prices.
We forecast Brent crude oil to end 2026 at $58 per barrel (pb) and ease to $55 in 2027, lower than consensus expectations. A persistent surplus above 2 million barrels per day (mbpd) next year underpins our forecast.
Oil supply is now expected to grow by 1.6 mbpd in 2026 to roughly 106 mbpd, 2.5 mbpd higher than in our previous baseline. Global oil demand is now expected to reach 104 mbpd in 2026, with growth upgraded by 1 mbpd in 2025 and 1.3 mbpd in 2026.
Upside risks appear more likely—including a faster-than-expected US shale slowdown, Russian export disruption, and potential OPEC restraint—but the downside risks are more material. A larger-than-expected surplus could lead to rapid OECD inventory builds in Q1 2026 when demand is seasonally low, risking a sharper price correction. Broader geopolitical and macro risks remain, but overall, the market is entering a period of abundance likely to keep a lid on prices.
Download the full report to explore our detailed short-run oil price outlook and risk assessment.
