Sticking with our US recession call

The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor market that is cooling, albeit gradually. That combination leaves the September Fed decision up in the air, though we expect weaker growth and slower inflation over the coming months to prompt Fed officials to keep rates unchanged in September and through the remainder of this year.

What you will learn:

• Even though the incoming data remain solid, we still think that growth will weaken from here as the impact of higher rates and tighter lending conditions continues to feed through. We are sticking with our call that the economy will fall into a recession late this year, though the risks are skewed toward a later downturn than in our baseline.