Tariff dramas trim growth prospects, mostly in North America
We’ve lowered our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4ppts to 2.0% and made much steeper adjustments to Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff hikes. The spillovers to the rest of the world are limited, and in the case of Europe offset by a defence-related fiscal boost.
While the global economy is still a long way from recession territory, our updated forecast points to this year being the weakest for world GDP growth since the global financial crisis, excluding 2020.
In this report, we share our thoughts on five questions related to assessing where the risks around the path for tariffs lie:
- To what extent do the latest tariff hikes make Trump’s underlying motives clearer?
- How much pain is Trump prepared to inflict on the US economy?
- How much will Canada and Mexico fight?
- What do the latest tariff hikes signify for the rest of the world?
- What tariffs on the rest of the world will the US announce in April?
Tags:
Related Reports
House prices continue to slide for China’s cities
Research Briefing Tariff dramas trim growth prospects, mostly in North America While the property market downturn has been universal, the scale and depth has been varied for different cities and regions.
Find Out More
The Construction Productivity Challenge in Australia
Delve into the state of construction productivity in Australia. Understand the factors affecting growth and how innovation can transform the industry for the better.
Find Out More
Australia’s future outlook: Net overseas migration trends
Australia’s student migration slowed in FY2025 as higher fees, testing standards, and provider caps took effect. While net overseas migration eased to 280,000, favourable currency settings, stronger work rights, and a higher student cap signal modest growth opportunities ahead.
Find Out More
Unpacking Australia’s dwindling productivity growth in Australia
After years of labour productivity stagnation, leaders are calling for urgent action to revive Australia productivity growth. The upcoming national productivity roundtable represents a critical opportunity to address long-term challenges and develop actionable reforms.
Find Out More