Recent Release|14 November 2023

The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Macro Consulting Team
Macro Consulting Team
Oxford Economics
The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods.

Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal.

This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).

Download the report
The experts behind the research

Our Macro Consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

David Schockenhoff

Head of US Macro Consulting

Michael Kleiman

Associate Director, North America Macro Consulting

Read the report

Complete the form below to download the report.

  • Share:

Tags:

ChinaDecoupleGlobal tradeGoods and servicesmc-regulation impactPolicymakersPoliticsSupply chainsTariffsUnited StatesUS-China Business CouncilUS-China relation

You might be interested in

Roadblocks to China’s chip self-sufficiency dream

Roadblocks to China’s chip self-sufficiency dream

China is unlikely to achieve full chip self-sufficiency any time soon because of high technological hurdles in producing advanced manufacturing equipment and materials. The self-sufficiency target now stretches well beyond actual fabrication to include the entire chip supply chain as China struggles to acquire necessary input and machinery into the production process.
Industrial recession still expected due to global tariff chaos

Industrial recession still expected due to global tariff chaos

Tariffs spark uncertainty in the global industrial sector, raising recession risks. What’s next for businesses? Discover insights from Oxford Economics.
Can Indian manufacturing capitalise on US-China tensions?

Can Indian manufacturing capitalise on US-China tensions?

India has benefited from US trade rerouting away from China since 2018, albeit to a much lesser extent than some of its Asian peers. India’s export strengths largely lie in sectors of the ‘old economy’, where growth potential is limited and competition is fierce. We estimate that the US-China trade war so far has improved India’s export prospects only to a limited extent, dashing hopes that an escalation of the conflict could boost the lagging manufacturing sector.
Rethinking China’s productivity prospects in the era of AI

Rethinking China’s productivity prospects in the era of AI

Adverse demographic trends imply that the only alternative for sustaining China’s longer-term growth momentum would be to sharply accelerate productivity growth. The timely emergence of generative AI could partially close this gap.