Recent Release | 17 Jun 2020
The Projected Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the U.K. Creative Industries
Economic Consulting Team
Oxford Economics
This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK.
Along with the tourism sector, Creative Industries (CIs) are among the most affected by the current Covid-19 crisis. Creative workers, one of the more vulnerable sectors of the workforce, are already seeing devastating impacts on their income, not only in turnover terms, but also in their charitable contributions and sponsorship. Leaving behind the more fragile part of the sector could cause irreparable socio-economic damage.
We find that the Creative Industries are projecting a combined £77bn turnover loss over the course of 2020 compared to 2019 (-31%). This is expected to translate into a GVA shortfall of £29bn in 2020 compared to 2019 (-26%), over half of which is in London.
In 2020, CIs are projecting a 122,000 drop in employment among employees (despite the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme – JRS) and a further 287,000 job losses among self employed workers, compared to 2019 levels. In total, 409,000 CIs jobs are considered at risk, 27% of which are in London and 20% are in the South East.
About the team
Our economic consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. The lead consultants on this project were:
Osman Ismail
Associate Director
Private: Osman Ismail
Associate Director
London, United Kingdom
Alice Gambarin
Lead Economist, Economic Impact
Alice Gambarin
Lead Economist, Economic Impact
New York, United States
Alice is part of Oxford Economics’ consulting division in the Americas, focusing on delivering socio-economic impact studies to clients across the continent.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Alice worked in the Housing Analysis Division at the UK Department for Work and Pensions, where she was involved in policy evaluation and data analysis. Alice holds a BA (Hons) and MSc (Hons) in Economic and Social Sciences from Bocconi University, Italy.
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