Research Briefing | Apr 2, 2021

UK | 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

UK 2020 ended with some hopeful potents

Q4’s national accounts revealed GDP falling not quite as far short of pre-Covid levels as previously believed. And a reversion of end-2020’s elevated saving ratio should support a strong, consumer-led, recovery as the economy reopens.
A net repayment of consumer credit in February meant households stayed in retrenchment mode, while the mini-boom in the housing market lost some steam. But signs of spring emerged in March’s decade-high manufacturing PMI.

What you will learn :

  • The household saving ratio of 16.1% in Q4 2020 was some way from the record high of 25.9% reached earlier in the year.
  • Excess savings have continued to build in early 2021.
  • Consumers’ appetite for credit remained weak in early-2021 while heat in the housing market showed signs of dissipating.
Tags: EuropeMacroRecoveryUnited Kingdom
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Takaichi’s big win doesn’t affect the fiscal outlook for Japan

Takaichi’s big win doesn’t affect the fiscal outlook for Japan

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) landslide election victory on Sunday doesn't change our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit of 2%-3% of GDP in FY2026-FY2028 – we still see the deficit only starting to decline from FY2029. We also keep our view that the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will be at 2.3% at end-2026 and 2.5% at end-2027 and beyond.
US and Chinese strength won’t boost all other economies

US and Chinese strength won’t boost all other economies

Upward revisions to US and Chinese GDP growth in Q4 meant that the previously anticipated soft end to 2025 failed to materialise.