US Recession Monitor – Recession odds continue to fall

Our proprietary models signal the lowest probability of recession in more than two years as strong incoming data indicates that the economy is on solid footing.

What you will learn:

• Our 2025 outlook remains bright, as the consumer is strong, manufacturing is poised to rebound, and business equipment spending has plenty of tailwinds.
• High interest rates, particularly for mortgages, remain a key risk. Home listings are extremely low and weak leading indicators for residential investment could mean layoffs in construction.
• One of our key themes next year is volatility, including in the bond market. This might weigh on the interest rate-sensitive segments of the economy.