US supply chain stress unwinds heading into year-end

The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag on economic activity. Our proprietary indicator has fallen in five of the last eight months, declining 25% since peaking in March 2022 as supply chain conditions have gradually improved. Looking ahead, the supply chain issue will remain a headache in 2023, though better alignment with demand will exert less upward pressure on consumer prices.

What you will learn:

• Transportation stress diminished in November, while price pressures fell for the fifth consecutive month, and labor problems eased. Improving inventory conditions led to the first sub-zero stress reading of any of our tracker’s components in two years, though this was partly driven by cooling demand as consumers chose to spend on services. The activity component recorded the lone increase of the month, but it will soften as the economy falls into a mild recession next year.