Video|29 May 2025

Will OPEC+ Push Oil Prices Higher Again?

Scott Livermore
Scott Livermore
Chief Economist & Managing Director
Will OPEC+ Push Oil Prices Higher Again?


OPEC+ is considering another 411,000 b/d output hike for July, with a decision expected on May 31. If confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive increase, reaffirming the shift from price defence to market share expansion. Crude prices, which briefly dipped near $60 p/b in April following initial reports of supply revival, have since rebounded, with Brent futures hovering around $65 p/b. However, the continued supply boost is likely to cap further price gains. We forecast oil prices to end the year at $66/b, as demand remains subdued and inventories elevated.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Israel has held its policy rate at 4.5% for the 11th consecutive meeting, in line with our expectations. Inflation accelerated to 3.6% in April, up from 3.3% in March. However, we anticipate inflation easing in H2, creating room for up to two rate cuts by year-end.


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