Positive tariff news does little to dispel overall uncertainty

June 2025 / July 2025

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• We’ve nudged up our world GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, in part to reflect the temporary but substantial reduction in tariffs between the US and China.
• Despite the favourable tariff news, uncertainty about US trade policy remains high.
• The outlook is still less favourable than envisaged prior to the tariff announcements in early April.

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