Climate Key Themes 2026: Local interests, global stakes

As progress on climate change mitigation continues and low-carbon technologies are heading into 2026 with strong momentum, significant headwinds await – the main one being the ever more fragmented pace of transition. Countries and regions are diverging in the speed of their transitions, slowing – but not stalling – global progress. It is against this backdrop that we set out the key climate themes for 2026.

1. Climate change mitigation will be driven by market incentives and short- and medium-term national priorities. Motivation for global climate change mitigation is shifting from the pursuance of shared long-term emissions and temperature goals to short- and medium-term national considerations. This is evident on both the consumption and production sides of the clean technology equation. This shift toward near-term priorities underscores the growing importance of short-term climate scenarios —and why actionable, near-term insights are more relevant today.
2. Climate risk will continue to play a central role in public and private decision-making, particularly as evidence mounts and risk models are updated. Despite pushback from the US, regulators continue to strengthen and formalise climate risk reporting requirements. Adaptation is also gradually being recognised as an operational necessity to reduce risk.
3. Investors are becoming more disciplined and discerning. Access to more data, case studies, and performance histories enable more rigorous and informed evaluations of how investable clean technologies are, cutting through any hype.
4. The energy demand and supply balance will be reshaped by AI’s energy needs. Policymakers and industry face the challenge of meeting rising demand in a sustainable way.

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