Economic Outlook 2026
Key Themes & Insights
The global economy is set to remain resilient in 2026. Yet beneath that headline, the real story is one of ongoing diverging prospects.
Our Key Themes 2026 series explores the key trends shaping the economy, highlighting opportunities and risks that you should monitor closely as you formulate your strategies.
Global economic outlook for 2026
The global economy should remain in reasonably good shape in 2026, and we anticipate solid but unspectacular world GDP growth. We’re confident that US GDP growth will outperform the consensus by some margin. However, we’re more cautious about prospects elsewhere.
Here are the three key themes that will shape global economy in 2026:
- The new global trade order – Act II. What will the knock-on effects of sustained high US tariffs be?
- Will AI continue to act as a shock absorber or swing to a shock magnifier?
- It’s all about the fiscal impulse. While monetary policy tends to dominate economic debate, its role in shaping growth surprises in 2026 is likely to be limited.
Global Key Themes 2026: Bullish on US despite AI bubble fears
Download the report Register for the webinarUncover more global insights
Industry Key Themes 2026
Industry prospects for 2026 appear solid, but we expect industrial performance to remain uneven across regions and sectors.
Download the report Register for the webinarCities Key Themes 2026
Trade restrictions, increasing competition in higher value-added industries, and elevated AI investment will push cities onto different growth paths.
Download the report Register for the webinarStrategy Key Themes 2026
US exceptionalism is back. Expect curve steepeners, an equity market broadening out and a preference for EM fixed income
Register for the webinarCommodity Key Themes 2026
The oil market will remain in a persistent surplus in 2026, while government policy will continue to shape non-energy prices.
Download the report Register for the webinarTrade Key Themes 2026
We expect trade resilience to continue through 2026, but trade will be caught in a tug-of-war between tariffs and AI.
Download the report Register for the webinarTourism Key Themes 2026
Global tourism demand slowed through 2025, as geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty impacted economic growth and consumer sentiment.
Download the report Register for the webinarReal Estate Key Themes 2026
The trough in global commercial real estate trading activity is now behind us.
Download the report Register for the webinarConstruction Key Themes 2026
We forecast activity will rebound 2.9% in 2026, underpinned by four key themes that will define the year.
Download the reportEmerging Markets Key Themes 2026
EMs will face lower-than-usual risks and positive sentiment towards EMs’ will continue.
Register for the webinarClimate Key Themes 2026
As progress on climate change mitigation continues and low-carbon technologies are heading into 2026 with strong momentum, significant headwinds await
Download the reportUnlock the full picture for 2026
Explore a wider set of Key Themes reports, from global strategy to emerging markets, reserved for our clients. Start your trial today to unlock full access.
Eurozone economic outlook for 2026
We expect the Eurozone economy to gain momentum in 2026, but without a strong policy boost, its economic growth will be lacklustre. Although the gap in performance between the core and periphery should narrow, country divergences will remain large. In this environment, we think four themes will be key to the outlook:
- Hopes of a major fiscal boost look too optimistic.
- Second China shock will increasingly define European policy.
- The AI investment boom will bypass Europe.
- Inflation is no longer a concern for policymakers.
Uncover more EMEA insights
UK Key Themes 2026
We think 2026 will be another challenging year for the UK economy – our GDP growth forecast of 1% is at the bottom of the consensus.
Read more Register for the webinarCentral and Eastern Europe 2026
We expect growth to pick up slightly in CEE, underpinned by a cyclical upswing in domestic demand. Poland will remain the region’s best performer.
Download the reportAfrica Watchlist 2026
Sino-African relations will start showing strain in 2026 as African industrialisation efforts run up against China’s desire to find alternative export markets.
Download the report Register for the webinarMiddle East and North Africa Key Themes 2026
We expect economic growth to strengthen in the Gulf Cooperation Council region in 2026. In contrast, growth in Turkey will slow to 3%.
Read moreUnlock more Key Themes reports
Unlock additional EMEA insights, including exclusive Nordics and Middle East 2026 outlook report with a complimentary trial. Get access to deeper forecasts, scenarios and regional analysis.
US economic outlook for 2026
US exceptionalism is alive and well, and that won’t change in 2026 as we expect the economy to outperform consensus expectations.
Download our report to explore the four key themes shaping the US economy for 2026.
- A fragmented economy. The health of the economy will depend on who you ask.
- Core inflation becomes unstuck.
- AI boost will continue while broader equipment spending increases.
- Round two of new trade order. The USMCA renegotiation will be one of the most important trade events in 2026.
Uncover more insights on the Americas and beyond
Canada Key Themes 2026
Canada’s 2026 outlook hinges on USMCA renegotiation. If trade risks ease, the year could mark an inflection point for investment and growth.
Read moreLatin America Key Themes 2026
We expect most LatAm economies to lose momentum in 2026 as domestic demand weakens. Country performance will vary, however.
Read moreYou’re missing key insights for 2026
Our more detailed industry and metro analysis are available exclusively to clients. Start a trial today to access these insights.
Asia economic outlook for 2026
Asia will continue to be the brightest spot in the global economy in 2026. However, its growth trajectory will likely be more uneven than in past cycles. Three key themes in particular will shape the regional economy in 2026:
- Governments will need to do more to fuel reflation and engineer a soft landing.
- Pessimistic consumers keep a lid on spending.
- How China trade policy and global AI capex will drive regional exports.
Uncover more APAC insights
Japan Key Themes 2026
We expect the Japanese economy to return to a modest growth path driven by consumption as the US tariff shock dissipates in H1 2026.
Request the reportAustralia Key Themes 2026
Australia faces a series of tussles for 2026 – inflation versus the RBA, public versus private demand and homeowners versus everyone else.
Download the reportAccess deeper, more granular APAC insights
To explore country-specific outlooks across China, Korea, Vietnam and more, along with detailed sector and local-market insights, start your complimentary trial today.
Request a trialHow we help you unlock the power of economics in 2026 and beyond
Unlock foresight
In 2026, headline economic numbers no longer tell the full growth story. Beneath the surface of steady global growth, major structural shifts – trade protectionism, the AI boom and the active fiscal policy – are shaping fundamentally different realities across countries, sectors and cities.
To navigate this, organisations need more than data points. They need foresight: a clear view of the forces that will matter most, how they may evolve, and what that means for businesses.
Oxford Economics enables this clarity. Our industry-leading forecasts, scenarios and modelling frameworks help you:
- Anticipate disruption before it hits. Spot emerging signals, structural shifts and turning points before they appear in headline data, enabling proactive rather than reactive decisions.
- Forecast demand and cost drivers. Draw on robust, model-generated projections for growth, inflation, interest rates, input costs and more to guide strategic planning.
- Pinpoint risks and opportunities. Compare countries, sectors and cities to understand where demand is strengthening, where vulnerabilities are building and where to enter, scale or exit.
- Mitigate risks. Quantify how alternative economic pathways could affect performance to build resilience into strategies.
Request a trial of our solutions to unlock foresight.
Unlock strategy
Knowing your markets and customers is essential, but no longer sufficient. In an ever-changing environment, leaders must understand the broader economic forces shaping their entire value chain, from demand and pricing to supply and investment.
Oxford Economics helps you understand where to focus, how fast to invest, and which markets offer credible long-run potential, providing the evidence base needed to build strategies that hold up under scrutiny.
How we help:
- Sharpen planning with reliable insights. Use transparent, model-based forecasts to anchor budgets, establish realistic revenue expectations and assess performance ranges.
- Identify and prioritise growth markets. Benchmark countries, sectors and cities to evaluate market attractiveness and long-term potential.
- Evaluate investment choices. Test investment cases under multiple economic futures, quantify upside and downside risks and support defensible board-level decisions.
Request a trial to experience firsthand how we help you unlock strategy.
Unlock resilience
In a world where geopolitical tensions, volatile costs, climate pressures and regulatory demands are escalating, organisations need to do more than respond to shocks – they must be ready for them.
Oxford Economics provides the robust foundation for strengthening resilience in strategies. Our risk models, macro and climate scenarios, and sustainability frameworks help you:
- Stress-test exposure to macro, geopolitical and climate shocks. Understand how adverse conditions could affect operations, portfolios, supply chains and financial performance.
- Identify vulnerable and resilient markets. Compare regions, sectors and cities to pinpoint where disruption risks are rising and where underlying fundamentals support greater stability.
- Support regulatory compliance. Map macro scenarios into CECL, IFRS 9 and other regulatory frameworks to meet disclosure requirements and demonstrate robust risk oversight.
- Assess climate and sustainability risks. Map transition and physical risks to assets, portfolios and locations to support ESG planning and regulatory compliance.
Request a trial to start unlocking resilience within your organisation.
Unlock performance
In today’s investment landscape, teams are navigating rapid regime shifts, conflicting signals, valuation uncertainty, and structural forces reshaping returns across asset classes. Delivering strong performance requires more than market intuition – it demands solid insight that is rigorous, transparent, and built to withstand investment-committee scrutiny.
Oxford Economics provides that foundation to generate alpha:
- Filter out the noise and sharpen investment ideas. Assess the true state of the economy to test ideas and understand what macro conditions mean for your portfolio.
- Challenge preconceptions with independent insights. Benchmark internal views against rigorous forecasts and scenarios to strengthen conviction or prompt early course correction.
- Build defensible strategies that withstand investment-committee scrutiny. Use transparent macro and sector assumptions to support underwriting, asset allocation and portfolio repositioning.
- Stress-test portfolios against macro, policy, and market shocks. Assess how adverse scenarios could affect returns, valuations and risk budgets across asset classes.
- Position for long-term structural shifts. Understand how AI diffusion, decarbonisation, demographics, and supply-chain realignment will reshape relative returns across markets and asset classes.
Trial with us today to unlock alpha.
About Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics is the world’s foremost independent economic advisory firm. Covering over 200 economies, 100 sectors and 8,000 locations, we provide insights and solutions that enable clients to make intelligent and responsible business decisions faster in an increasingly complex and uncertain world.
Take your next steps with us
Step 1: Subscribe to our newsletters
Keep informed with our latest economic analysis. From breaking macro trends to deep-dive market outlooks, have critical insights delivered straight to your inbox.
Subscribe todayStep 2: Start a trial of our solutions
Access selected forecasts, reports and scenario tools and experience first-hand how these insights help you plan confidently, prioritise markets and navigate emerging risks.
