Middle East and North Africa Key Themes 2026: Growth to strengthen

Below is an abridged view of our 2026 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) analysis. To view the full report, please complete the form on the right.

2026 MENA key theme 1

GCC consumers will be standout performers

The outlook is bright for GCC consumers as we expect them to outperform their international peers. Low inflation has helped protect growth in real disposable income, which has also been supported by strong demand, and very low unemployment rates. We do not envision any let up, as governments continue to push for greater foreign direct investment in their push to diversify their economies away from oil and gas.

2026 MENA key theme 2

The OPEC+ pause on oil output will likely be extended

We expect GCC countries to resume raising oil supply again in H2 2026 and project a full unwinding of the remaining caps on production by mid-2027.

Meanwhile, Qatar is forecast to substantially increase its gas production and exports in 2026 as it attempts to hit ambitions growth targets by 2030. For this reason, its economy is likely to be the best performing in the region.

2026 MENA key theme 3

Fiscal policies diverge

Muted oil revenues are prompting divergence in fiscal strategies across the region.

Countries that have been more successful in diversifying away from oil revenues, like the UAE and Qatar, are likely to press ahead. Those slower to adapt will likely pare back infrastructure projects and future ambitions.

2026 MENA key theme 4

Could AI be the next tourism sector for the region?

AI-related sectors have been identified and targeted as strategically important opportunities for the region. Huge investment is planned in energy supplies, networks, data centres, and education. We anticipate 2026 will be a big year to put much of the planning into action, with more capital investments and integration. 

2026 MENA key theme 5

Turkey’s policy will prioritise further disinflation

Turkey’s policymakers will continue to pursue policies that prioritise lowering inflation, albeit in a way that minimises the growth trade off. We expect this balancing act to remain challenging and see lower growth and higher inflation than the stated official targets.

MENA 2026 economic outlook: Stronger growth, but rising divergence

Taken together, these themes point to stronger regional growth in 2026, alongside increasing divergence in policy paths and economic drivers across countries.

Our report MENA Key themes 2026, explores these key trends in detail. To request access to the full report, please complete the form.